Rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly Large Language Models and Generative AI, have the potential to reshape businesses and industries. While fawning media attention has captured finite aspects of new tools like ChatGPT, the implications are likely to be much bigger and the advancement much faster than commonly understood.
The changes driven by AI technologies are here today, and we must be better informed of these tools in order to navigate the positive and negative impacts of these technologies. The Evercore ISI strategy team does just that in their report “Productivity’s Potential, From Macro to Micro”, in which they estimate Generative AI exposures across 800+ U.S. occupations, in 250+ subsectors and 20 broad industries.
The Evercore ISI AI Company Impact Navigator aims to evaluate the implications of Generative AI across diverse industries and occupations, with a spotlight on its capability to amplify productivity. The primary goal is to determine Generative AI exposure for companies within the Russell 3000. This is based on various technology adoption scenarios and is underpinned by publicly accessible labor data. Together with its supplementary visualization tool, Evercore ISI’s AI Occupation Impact Navigator, users are equipped to quantitatively assess the influence of Generative AI on industries and job roles. Both instruments are crafted to nurture an adaptive understanding, allowing stakeholders to form their own insights on the speed of AI adoption and the subsequent impact on specific companies and professions.
Methodology and Data Inputs:
- The model employs the federal North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) as a bedrock to methodically categorize and evaluate distinct industries and occupations. By leveraging NAICS, there’s a consistent sectoral demarcation, shedding light on which industries are primed for significant AI-induced transformations.
- The analytic framework covers more than 800 U.S. occupations, further broken down into over 250 subsectors (as classified by NAICS) and 20 broad industries.
- Every occupation possesses a minimum AI exposure of 10%, emphasizing the ubiquitous potential of AI. Remarkably, about 32% of the tasks within an average occupation are susceptible to AI intervention.
Adoption Curve & Scenario Analysis:
The Navigator presents diverse AI integration scenarios. These projections lay the groundwork for the bull, bear, and base case scenarios, offering users a comprehensive view of possible future landscapes. Such scenarios prepare users to foresee the multiple pathways Generative AI might chart in transforming industries and the wider economy.
For our disclaimer related to Generative AI, click here.